Edward M. Wolfe
(212) 272-7048

Robert D. Farley
(212) 272-9738

Scott H. Group
(212) 272-0692

Timothy J. Denoyer
(212) 272-2138

Michael T. Beer
(212) 272-5938

Courtney Reardon
(212) 272-9382

Fourth-Quarter 2007 Shippers Survey Results
Airfreight & Surface Transportation

POSSIBLE INFLECTION IN SHIPPER FREIGHT DIVERSION BACK TO RAIL. After five quarters of shippers moving more freight from rail to truck than truck to rail, reflecting weak truck and strong rail pricing, that trend inverted during the fourth quarter into higher fuel prices. Our respondents shifted 3.7% of their volumes from rail to truck, down materially versus a 9.6% shift last quarter and an 8.1% shift in the year-ago period. Conversely, our respondents moved 6.7% of volumes on average from TL to rail in fourth-quarter 2007, up significantly versus 4.8% last quarter and 2.9% in the year-ago period. This marks the highest level of freight diversion to rail since second-quarter 2003.

POCKETS OF TRUCK CAPACITY TIGHTENING. While shippers overall still believe there remains excess TL and LTL capacity, there seem to be early signs of capacity beginning to tighten. Somewhat surprisingly, ten percent of shippers believed TL capacity was “tight,” compared to 1% in fourth-quarter 2006. One percent of respondents indicated that TL capacity was “extremely tight” in fourth-quarter 2007, the first quarter since first-quarter 2006 that any of our respondents have checked this box. In addition, a higher percentage of shippers are compliant with fuel surcharges for both TL and LTL than a year ago.

FEDEX FREIGHT LIKELY LARGEST WINNER FROM YRC REGIONAL SHUTDOWNS. We inquired where customers of YRC regional facing terminal closures at the former Bestway/Holland regions are shifting freight. Our respondents indicated that among others they expect to move 23% of former YRC regional freight to FedEx, 19% to Roadway or Yellow, 12% to ABF Freight, and 11% to UPS.